In pretty much any professional field, your competence hinges on your ability to read situations and how you should react. A lawyer in a jury trial for example has to be able to read the juries correctly in order to achieve a verdict they want. When an engineer is presented with a problem, they have to be able to identify the underlying in issue in order to fix it. An editor literally requires reading as part of their job, figuring out which part of the book requires editing before publication.
By this same line of thinking, anyone who is involved in the financial market in some way also has to be able to read the market in order to profit off of it. Investing isn’t just about choosing the right company to invest in, it’s also about picking the right time and in trading, a field that is considerably more time sensitive, the ability to read the market is even more crucial. Trading courses and book can easily get you up to speed about how to read the market but if you’re short on time, here’s a crash course on the most important things to read when it comes to the market.
Looking at the big picture and the microscopic details
When it comes to trading and investing, there are two categories that you should be looking out for. The first type is the economic or market indicators, which are data, news or numbers that usually have large ramifications across different economical sectors. Anything that belongs to this particular group affects the economy in general, but not to the same degree, so while you have to watch out for these indicators, you still shouldn’t react impulsively. An example would be the current trade war between the United States and China, where every update could send stocks across the world on a rollercoaster ride.
The second type is company news. Unlike the first type, news belonging to this category tends to not have major ramifications within the economy even if the news itself is particularly groundbreaking. For investors or traders that are involved with the company in question however, this might be of greater importance than the first category. An example of this category would be the scandal currently engulfing Carlos Ghosn and the Renault-Nissan Alliance, whose fallout is still mostly limited to companies within the alliance, Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi.
Due to the relatively specific nature of the second category, they’re not particularly hard to read, it’s the more general nature of the first category that can sometimes be hard to understand. For example, we’re all in agreement that climate change is generally bad but the specific of how bad it’d be is something we’re still not fully aware of, so much so that it’s only recently people have been aware of just how much the general insect population has drastically decreased around the world.
With that in mind, I’m going to be focusing on the first category. Because of how broadly they affected the world, you should use these indicators as a sign of when to enter and exit the market and to adjust your strategies. While there are industries that might be less affected by these indicators, they’re still not completely isolated so if you’re looking for a safe harbor, you’re going to have carefully consider your options.
Labor data and employment, or unemployment, rate
Labor data is most frequently cited as one of the most important indicator when it comes to the health of the economy in general and for a good reason. Labor data is representative of the health of both the companies and the general public as a whole. If companies are laying off employees left and right, that’s an indicator that companies aren’t willing to invest in the economy which would also lead to the same conclusion with the consumers as less financial security would lead to less consumer spending.
The primary element of a healthy economy is the amount of money that’s changed hands and a high unemployment rate prevents that from happening. Money from companies are being passed less and less to the general public and the public followed suit by spending less money on things. A steady unemployment rate is bad enough but a rising one would be disastrous.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) and inflation in general
While inflation has a certain negative stigma, it’s really hard to frame rising goods prices are a good thing, much have been written on the subject of why inflation isn’t necessarily bad. Generally, I like to think of inflation like fire, it’s good in small doses and as long as it’s controllable, which is why practically every nation in the world sets a target for inflation rate. It’s the job of their respective central banks to manipulate certain numbers, such as the interest rate, to meet this target.
Inflation itself is usually measured using two metrics, CPI and PPI. CPI tracks the price for consumer goods and it’s a useful metric in determining just how cheap or expensive it is for the average public to maintain their livelihood. PPI on the other hand tracks the price for producer goods, which are usually the raw materials needed to manufacture certain products. A sudden and dramatic increase in PPI, such as when steel prices jumped because of tariffs introduced by the United States would result in a corresponding increase in CPI as well.
Consumer spending and activity in general
Labor data and CPI would inevitably have a degree of influence in the rate of consumer spending but the exchange of money isn’t the only number used to measure consumer activity, stock and housing prices could also be used as indicators. The common theme about stock prices is that they tend to be unrealistic, which is true if you’re looking at the current situation as stock prices are usually reflective on the future potential of the corresponding company and not where they are now.
The above reason is why Tesla, which commands a minuscule market share in the automotive market, can have a higher market cap than industry stalwarts such as GM, because the market believes that Tesla can lead the market once our electrified future arrives. Housing prices on the other hand is reflective of current market sentiments since property values are highly tied to demands, although they can also be highly dependent on the region itself but using the House Price Index (HPI), you could monitor changes across several regions to see if there’s any large-scale movement to pick up on.
Investor activity
One other indicator than you can use is the data to read the situation on the market is investor activity. Like stock prices, this is more indicative to future potential and identifying future market trends so this is more relevant to the long-term investor but this is still useful information to know. The thing is, this information isn’t always publicly available but you can check out reports from investment firms and venture capitalists to see where their money is being funneled. China’s Alibaba and Tencent, together with Japan’s Softbank are making huge movements in this sector so you might want to see where foreign money is heading as well.